Sunday, September 26, 2010

环保股 - 太阳能储电方案 ETI科技领先全球

全球环保意识日益提高,许多国家近年来更着重绿化工艺,攫取绿色商机。

在全球趋向采用再生能源产品之际,不少商家也因看准了这方面的发展潜能,大势进军绿化工艺领域,而本地电池充电系统业者——ETI科技(ETITECH,0018,主板科技股)就是其中之一。

这家不到10年的新兴企业,竟然是拥有全球专利,且是东南亚唯一有能力设计及生产再生能源储存系统的公司。这块大饼要怎么打拼,且听听ETI科技执行董事许宇光向《南洋商报》一一道来。

以设计和生产电源储存器为业务的ETI科技,早期主要为小型电子产品设计和生产充电器,随着全球逐渐走向绿化工艺,该公司近年也部署进军其他更大且具潜能的领域。

当中,太阳能电源储存、通讯转站以及高尔夫球场电动车的电源储存,便是ETI科技部署积极进军的3大领域。

说到太阳能这项已面市多年的科技,全球业者多不胜数,但一直面对电源储存的问题。这,便是ETI科技看到的竞争空间。

储电可完全使用

许宇光透露,目前,市场主要使用铅酸电池(lead-acid battery)来储电,惟却无法和太阳能电板(solar panel)完美搭配,因为储电速度不高,在操作时更会发出热量而导致电力流失。

“由于发觉这问题,我们研发了‘锂离子聚合体电池’(polymer lithium ion battery),这电池的具备很高的储电能力,只需4小时来完成充电。

“相比之下,铅酸电池的充电时间介于7至12小时。”

此外,铅酸电池所储存的电源,只有大约30%可以使用,而锂离子聚合体电池内所储存的所有电源则几乎全可使用,进而需要更少的电板,而储电池体积也更小。

锂离子电供稳定

他自豪道:“锂离子聚合体电池是由ETI科技发明,因此,我们在这方面可说是全世界的领导者,尽管在先进国如美国和日本,都未见任何商家使用这种技术。这让太阳能电源储存技术有了很大的突破!”

除了太阳能,风力和海浪也可用于生产再生能源。但无论是哪种方式,它们都属于大自然的一份子,超越人类可以掌控的范围,因为在阴天或者浪潮不多时节,电源就会受到干扰,因此在供电上会有不稳定的现象。

“此外,一些郊区是通过小型水坝来生产和提供电源,但由于只是依赖水力,各住家所取得的电流供应也非常不稳定。

“因此,我们可采用锂离子聚合体电池来储电,就可以在提供稳定的电源。”

出口美澳亚 军商皆合用

至今,ETI科技的太阳能电池产品已经出口至美国、澳洲、香港和泰国,其他电池产品也已销售予日本、德国、法国的商家。

许宇光举例,该公司已提供升降机使用的电池产品给日本的三菱公司(Mitsubishi)和日立公司(Hitachi)。

拥9000万订单

“此外,我们也为法国的泰雷兹公司(Thales)提供军用电池,这电池主要用于通讯站。我们如今正与对方讨论,探讨进行其他产品的合作。”

截至目前,ETI科技共拥有8000万至9000万令吉订单,太阳能电池产品占大约四分之一,其余则是原有的电池产品贡献。

尽管如此,许宇光相信太阳能电池产品的订单接下来将会大幅增加;但订单一旦激增,该公司的现有厂房(位于吉打的居林高科技园)是否有能力支撑?

另外,他提到霹雳州政府近来正积极推动绿化活动,计划在怡保美露附近开拓绿化工业园,ETI科技也受邀参与,但细节还在讨论当中。

“如果顺利,我们将会在当地设厂。当然,我们也会考虑在其他地区如沙巴设厂,以节约运输成本。”

进运旅游休闲领域 数国际酒店洽购中

至于电动车电池业务,ETI科技如今也正与数家国内外连锁酒店和高尔夫球度假村洽谈,探讨提供电池产品给后者的商机。

许宇光透露,这些都是着名的连锁酒店和高尔夫球度假村,分别来自美国、香港和泰国等。

“我们的专家已经到这些酒店和度假村进行测试工作。鉴于还在洽谈当中,我无法透露潜在的合约细节和价值。这些连锁酒店和高尔夫球度假村的规模很大,我们在这方面确实拥有很大的发展潜能。”

在本地,ETI科技已经为马六甲的爱化摩沙(A Famosa)度假村高尔夫球场的电动车,提供电池产品。

当然,谈及电动车,ETI科技也盼其电池产品,有朝一日能用在公路上的电动汽车。

许宇光说:“事实上,我们在2009年便开始与国家汽车控股(Proton,5304,主板消费产品股)洽谈合作推出电动汽车事宜,这目前仍然在商协的阶段。”

洽供应给国家汽车

针对外国伙伴,他补充,该公司已经与韩国的Kokam公司签署一项合作协议,并预计在未来1至两周内会与另一家韩国公司进行合作,惟拒绝透露细节。

据较早前的报道,ETI科技是计划与Kokam合伙,在沙巴和砂拉越进行一项太阳能储电系统计划,前者更因此与公共工程部密切接触。

东南亚唯一设计产商 竞标郊区学校电供计划

目前,ETI科技是东南亚唯一有能力设计和生产以锂离子聚合体储电池的公司,还在申请全球专利中。也就是说,除了东南亚,全球市场都在ETI科技脚下。

尽管这系统面市不久,但ETI科技自今年2月起,已开始为沙巴的部分渔村设置这种以太扬能发电及储电系统。

许宇光称:“我们已经在沙巴丹南,为41家庭装置迷你太阳能家用系统。这是ETI科技与COMPUGT(Compugt,5037,主板贸服股)51%子公司——Compugates沙巴私人有限公司,以及当地政府合作的一项计划。”

沙巴先驱计划启航

此外,ETI科技子公司ETI Tech私人有限公司与Green Electric私人有限公司及Erapolitan私人有限公司,也刚组成策略伙伴,共同竞标教育部及乡村及区域发展部的供电计划。

据悉,政府的评审和遴选程序已晋尾声。若竞标成功,这3家公司将透过太阳能系统,为学校及乡村供应电流。

对此,许宇光表示,ETI科技主要以郊区和没有电源的学校为目标,如今正在3所学校进行测试工作,包括计划、设计和筹备等事项。

“如果一切顺利,我们10月至11月份将可开始在这些学校装置设备和测试产品,而整体计划估计在2011年1月份启动。”

晋材料审批程序

尽管不愿透露这计划的价值,他表示,全马尚有很多坐落在郊区且没有电源的学校,尤其是在东马的沙巴和砂拉越,这一一为ETI科技提供良好的发展潜能。

他披露,ETI科技的产品已经完成政府的‘电器材料批准规定’(EMAL)的测试程序,目前正等待政府的证书。

“同时,我们也和大马规格及工业研究院(SIRIM)建立了合作关系,对方更同意让我们负责在沙巴哥打马鲁都的一项乡村发电计划。”

根据资料显示,全国目前有约千家目前没有电供的郊区学校,政府在第十大马计划下共拨款64亿令吉进行这项计划。

绿化能源抬头 产品需求无限大

许宇光深信,总有一天,全球各地会大量采用再生能源,届时,再生能源产品的需求量将会激增。

“目前,电源多使用天然资源或燃料来生产。随着地球上的天然资源不断在减少,最终,人们将需要更高的成本来发电。所以,到了一个阶段,各市场的企业和消费者将会大量采购再生能源产品。”

“届时,ETI科技奖在能源储存器方面占有很大的优势。”

许宇光的想法并非异想天开,而是个事实,因为,根据联合国环境规划署(UNEP)的《2010年全球再生能源投资的趋势》和21世纪再生能源政策网络(REN21)的《2010年全球再生能源情况报告》,全球的再生能源的投资额已经第二年超越非再生能源。

投资装置增长

据联合国环境规划署的文告,尽管2009年“核心洁净能源”(新再生能源、生物燃油和能源效率)的投资额下跌7%至1620亿美元(约5070亿6000万令吉),但风力发电的投资额却创纪录。 如果加上太阳能热水器的开支,以及屋顶太阳能光伏(solar PV)总装配成本,2009年的总投资额实际上是增长的。

此外,在2009年内,有25%的全球电源产能是源自再生能源,而再生能源所生产的电源,更占全球电源量的18%。

占全球发电量50%

有关报告预计,在2010或2011期间,再生能源将占全球新设施发电量的50%或以上。

除了欧美的先进经济体,中国私人和公共领域在“核心洁净能源”的投资额也跃升53%,再生能源发电量共增加37千兆瓦(GW),超越所有国家。

报告也指出,全球鼓励再生能源的政策更由2005年的55项增加至如今的100项,增幅接近一倍;这当中有一半来自新兴国家,意味着它们在这方面也扮演着非常重要的角色。

钢铁股

From: Peggy Method

List of Steel stocks in Bursa Malaysia Stock Exchange KLSE.
The steel counters are AnnJoo, Lion Group, Perwaja, Southern Steel.
More results are PMetal or Press Metal, Kinsteel, CSCSteel, and ChooBee.
Also TattGiap or TatGiap, Masteel or Malaysia Steel Works (KL) Bhd.
Mycron Steel Berhad.
Are the followings also steel counters steel stocks or steel company?
HiapTeck, Engtex, TongHerr, Jaks, Pantech, Pertisma,
YunKong or Yung Kong, Blue Scope, Chinwell or Chin Well,
Sino Huaan

-
I saw the target price from RHB research web.
AnnJoo Target price fair value RM2.84
CSCSteel Target Price Fair Value RM2.10
Perwaja Target Price Fair Value RM1.24
HiapTeck Target Price Fair Value RM1.38
Kinsteel Target Price Fair Value RM0.78
Huaan Target Price Fair Value RM0.32

手套股

大马交易所挂牌上市的手套业者,依序为:

顶级手套 (TOPGLOV, 7113 主板工业股);
速伯瑪 (SUPERMX, 7106 主板工业股);
高产尼品 (KOSSAN, 7153 主板工业股);
贺特佳 (HARTA. 5168 主板工业股);
稳大 (ADVENTA, 7191 主板工业股);
利得股份 (LATEXX, 7064 主板工业股);
综合树胶机构 (IRCB, 127 主板工业股);
来百利机构 (RUBEREX, 7803 主板工业股)。

这8家公司中,业务规模各异。市场普遍把前三者或者加上贺特佳归为第一组别,而后四者则纳入第二组别的竞争者。

所不同的是,第一组别以投资机构者为多数;而第二组别的投资者则以散户为主。

Thursday, September 16, 2010

现在就是靠耐性的时候了!

Dec 24th, 2001 | By klse.8k | Category: 8K 股票投资

朋友打电话给我,问我读了没有WARREN BUFFETT最新的股市评论。

他购买了12月份的FORTUNE杂志(Special issue: Investor’s Guide 2002),里面有篇专访:

Exclusive : WARREN BUFFETT on the Market

他认为这是篇难得的文章,所以打算复印给我。

我是FORTUNE杂志的长期订户,所以当然不会错过这篇好文章。

这篇文章好长,所以我无法把它翻译成中文在此发表。

我只想根据里面的一点点精华,讲讲我的感受。

文章一开始BUFFETT就列出美国道琼斯指数(DOW JONES)过去34年的历史。

他把它分成两个17年的阶段。

第一个17年:
1964年12月31日:874点
1981年12月31日:875点

(他要告诉我们这期间道琼斯指数并没有成长,只在原地跑步!)

第二个17年:
1981年12月31日:875点
1998年12月31日:9181点

(他要告诉我们这期间道琼斯指数成长超过了10倍,是个疯狂的年代!)

这引起了我的兴趣,因为据我所知:

第一个17年,从1964到1981,BUFFETT的身家增加了26倍!

从6百万变成2亿5千万。

平均每3年多就开1番。

(大约39个月就开1番)

第二个17年,从1981 到1998,BUFFETT的身家又增加了130倍!

从2.5亿变成330亿。

平均每2年半就开1番。

(大约30个月就开1番)

如此看来,BUFFETT的投资方法并没有受到指数的影响。

第一个17年指数没有变动, BUFFETT的身家也照样可以增加,而且增加的幅度也很可观,差不多3年就开1番。

(这必然是他的投资方法很正确!)

第二个17年指数上升了10倍,BUFFETT的身家也快速的增加,开番的时间也跟着缩短了,差不多2年半就开1番。

(当然这也是他的正确投资方法使然。)

顺便讲一讲BUFFETT的历史。

BUFFETT是在1930年出生的,在1964年他的年龄是34岁,身家大约是600万美元。

BUFFETT一生都没有打过工。

(他只帮人投资而赚取酬劳。)

他是靠投资股票致富的!

20岁那年的他身家大约是2万美元。

从20岁到34岁只是短短的14年他的身家已经从2万变成600万,足足成长了300倍!或8个多番。

这个开番的速度是惊人的,因为他不需要2年就可开1番。

(大约20个月就开1番。)

我不厌其烦的讲述BUFFETT的致富过程只是想告诉大家,致富是急不来的。

如果能够做到两,三年就开一番已经是极限了!

因为今天BUFFETT已经是世上第二有钱的人了,仅次以BILL GATES而已!

(他的开番速度也只是平均每2年半开1番而已。)

BUFFETT已经证明给我们看,只要方法正确就算整体的股市没有上升,选对股也照样可以开番的!

(文章中的第一个17年就是很好的证明。)

BUFFETT选股首重ROE。

也就是这个理由,我所选的股项也是先注重ROE,才来看PE和NTA。

我自认没有BUFFETT的才华,所以我只好跟着他的脚步走,只希望这样做能够少走点冤枉路。

他2年半开1番,我就把目标定为3年开1番就可以了。

他有的是耐性,我只好也跟着培养我的耐性了。

现在就是靠耐性的时候了!

http://www.oomoney.com/klse_8k_series/klse8k-stock_investment/time_for_passion/#more-178


How to use PEGGY Method to Select Stock

From: Peggy Method

If you want to buy a good stock, you need to know a lot of the company info, eg industry PE, economy, profit margin, competition, industry growth, exchange rate, new project, management, cash flow, major
customer, geographical risk, etc.

Everybody is so busy, where got time or knowledge to check or how to know so much. But if you buy without knowing a bit of info, also very dangerous. So I come with PEGGY Method for stock selection.

PE, G, G, Y
PE: PE ratio, price over earning per share, the lower the better.
G: Growth of future earnings/net profit. The higher % the better.
G: Gearing. About the company's borrowings. The lower the better.
Y: Yield, dividend yield. The higher the % the better.

PE: Low
G: High
G: Low
Y: High


If remisier recommends a stock, example ABC:
You: What to buy?
Remisier: Can try ABC at RM1.95. Fair value RM2.40
You: PE low?
Remisier: 11.2, Average
You: How about future growth?
Remisier: 14%. Indonesian and Thailand operations just started
You: How about gearing or borrowings
Remisier: No borrowings, net cash
You: How about the dividend yield?
Remisier: Got 5%-6%, paying 60% profit as dividend.
You: Sound good, buy 2 lots at RM1.95


If remisier recommends a stock, example XYZ:
You: What to buy?
Remisier: Can try XYZ at RM44, good dividend
You: PE low?
Remisier: high, about 18.
You: How about future growth?
Remisier: Next few years negative or no growth
You: How about gearing or borrowings
Remisier: High borrowings
You: How about the dividend yield?
Remisier: Got 5% dividend yield or less.
You: Dividend yield 5% good, but other things are bad. Not interested


From the above, you can use PEGGY method to select stock. If you are not familiar with stock market or financial term, no need to know the exact figure or percentage. Just need to know whether is high or low. Just ask your remisier PEGGY questions. Very difficult to get all PE G G Y perfect. So, if example PE, G, G are good, but the Yield a bit low, then can be considered. No need so rigid, up to you. The above example

ABC, the PE is average but all are good, so can considered. If you can find one counter all PEGGY is good, just buy it and then let me know. I will buy.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

一度猛升17點 馬股奮戰1524點

(吉隆坡14日訊)富馬隆綜指繼週一突破1450點大關后,今日盤中再猛升17點,券商看好馬股此輪漲勢,挑戰下道阻力點的1524點!

黃氏星展維克斯證券研究指出,馬股目前仍處上升趨勢,相信接下來的表現將勝過週一。

“以目前的走勢來看,富馬隆綜指正朝向緊急阻力點1465點前進。”

富馬隆綜指今日在金融及種植類股等重量級股領漲下續攀高,早盤微揚0.66點,以1457.62點報開,惟爾后繼續領頭北上。

令吉續走強

休市時,富馬隆綜指已突破黃氏星展維克斯預測的下道阻力點,暫掛1468.61點,起11.65點,半日易手6億8萬6600股。

興業投資研究的技術分析圖披露,馬股在買盤湧進下,短期內料挑戰08年1月創下的1524.69點高峰,支撐點則落在1434點。

午盤間,馬股持續走高,閉市時,富馬隆綜指收在全日最高1474.44點,起17.48點,成交量達10億3985萬5800股,寫下自08年1月15日以來的32個月新高。

另一方面,僑豐投資研究分析報告說,令吉匯率持續走強,加上中、美兩國的經濟數據表現穩定,為市場注入動力,進而推動馬股節節攀高。

中國上週公佈工業產值生產,仍持續錄得增長,加上美國週一宣佈,落實巴塞爾III資本協議,以不傷害經濟增長為前提,有效監管銀行體系。

“隔夜美股收高,加上種種利好支撐,馬股目前仍呈上升趨勢,惟我們不排除,在這輪漲潮后,市場或稍微套利。”

Monday, September 13, 2010

RSI

RSI stands for Relative Strength Indicator. It is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold levels.

1. 13 Period RSI > 70 for overbought stock.
2. 13 Period RSI <> 100,000 shares.

http://my-rsiscan.blogspot.com/

Sir John Templeton.

From: Where is Ze Moola

As a tribute to one of the great investing legend, Sir John Templeton who had just passed away, here's a compilation of articles written on the legend.


Quote: "A $10,000 investment in the storied Templeton Growth Fund (TEPLX) in 1954 would have grown to $2 million by 1992, when Templeton sold his company to Franklin Resources, (BEN) the San Mateo, Calif.-based fund giant."

  • By LINDSAY THOMPSON

    Guardian Business Editor

    lthompson@nasguard.com

    Months after the luxury liner Titanic sank off Newfoundland in 1912 with several millionaires on board, on a small farm town in Tennessee, John Templeton, who was to become one of the wealthiest investors in Bahamian history, was born.

    Citing hard work as the key to his success, Sir John Templeton, 91, started at the tender age of six in his backyard.

    On a cool Saturday morning in the comfort of his office at the Templeton Foundation, which houses Templeton Global Advisors Ltd., at Lyford Cay, Sir John told The Guardian how he obtained his wealth and his status as an international business icon.

    "At six years old, I said I want to earn some money, so my mother set aside a small piece of garden and told me to grow whatever I wanted to grow and sell it at the grocery store.

    "So my first joy was earning money, and saving money is the second thing; hard work and thrift."

    Sir John said people do not save enough money; it was always his plan to save 50 cents of every dollar he earned. Eventually, he invested in the stock market and "although you don't get rich quickly that way, by the time you're 91, you do."

    His name has become synonymous with business, finance and investments, the latter not so much any more, because his focus has shifted to exploring spiritual wealth and the purpose of being.

    For more than 30 years, he has shared his talent and success with The Bahamas, a place he calls home.

    Asked why did he decided to invest in The Bahamas, he said:

    "Thirty-one years ago, I investigated all the places in the world, very attractive places and decided that the Lyford Cay (Club) in The Bahamas was the most attractive place on earth."

    As to what made him decide to start investment management fund, Templeton Growth Ltd., in 1954, Sir John simply said he was searching for ways to invest outside his country, as he always advises young people to do.

    "I recommend to all young people, to try hard and find out how they can be most beneficial to humanity. The talent I seemed to have is to be able to help people to invest outside their own nation."

    When Sir John entered Yale University, he met many wealthy people and for the first time became acquainted with those who owned shares.

    "But during that time there were all these shares in just one nation. So I thought that if I could become an expert and help people who have some assets to invest worldwide, that would produce better results in the long run; why limit themselves in one area."

    Sir John studied economics at Yale and earned a degree at Oxford, and eventually landed a job on Wall Street at a stock-brokerage firm. His job entailed advising wealthy families on how to select the right investments outside America.

    "I did that nights and days for 50 years and towards the end of that time I decided that while I was helping a few thousand wealthy families, I wasn't going to have the tremendous benefit to humanity in the long run. So I gradually decided that I would sell out all businesses totally, 12 years ago, and since then I have been busier than I have ever been in my life."

    In October, 1992, the Templeton funds were acquired by the Franklyn Group for $440 million.

    Sir John now dedicates his time to trying to change attitudes toward discoveries. He was amazed that "no religion has been enthusiastic about new discoveries... they all look back at ancient scriptures and prophets."

    This led Sir John to set up three foundations worldwide to facilitate scientists in making discoveries of a spiritual nature.

    For Sir John, there are no major regrets in his career, other than that "no one" has found ways to increase spiritual information. He wished he had started back in his garden at age six, instead of growing vegetables, to discover why he was created, why he was human.

    "Nobody ever explained it to me," he said. "I used to look up at the stars and wondered why they existed."

    Sir John no longer considers himself an investment expert, but as the industry becomes more challenging, he advises that this is the time to "play it safe."

    "Nowhere in my lifetime has there been a period when it has been so hard to find a share to buy at a bargain price. When I started to do this in 1936, there were only 17 professional security analysts on earth. Now, the Society of Security Analysts has 32,000 official members in the United States alone.

    "So, at the same time, if you are thrifty and save money, you have to put it somewhere, in real estate, gold, bank accounts or in shares, which is probably the best investment in the long run."

    When asked what is the most significant change since he came to The Bahamas, Sir John said it is that progress is so rapid.

    "More books have been printed in the last 20 years, more has been discovered in medicine in the last 50 years... that is speeding up in The Bahamas, too."

    "These 31 years in The Bahamas have been absolutely amazing in every way. The number of people who have been educated is amazing; when I came here, few people had a radio or a television set, and certainly, nobody had a computer.

    "Also, the prosperity has been wonderful, the whole world has become more prosperous. People in The Bahamas were very poor when I came here."

    Sir John said the country should welcome impending world trading blocs such as Free Trade Area of the Americas and the World Trade Organisation, as the prospects look beneficial for The Bahamas.

    "Discoveries are being made in all industries all over the world and The Bahamas can't make those discoveries itself; it has to learn from other people. The Bahamas should try harder to get information by television, radio and the Internet. The Bahamas should have young people study everything worldwide and prepare themselves to be leaders, not just in one nation, but worldwide."

    Caption TALKING BUSINESS – Sir John Templeton, founder of the Templeton Foundation, speaks to Guardian business editor Lindsay Thompson at his office in Lyford Cay. Staff photo by Donald Knowles

    Posted: Monday December 22, 2003

Here's another.

Sir John Templeton, the founder of the Templeton organization (i.e., Templeton Global Investment Funds) is widely regarded as one of the pioneers of global investing. He has retired from active management of the Templeton funds, but has left managers who follow these 16 immortal principles of his investment process:

  • 1. If you begin with a prayer, you can think more clearly and make fewer mistakes.
  • 2. Outperforming the market is a difficult task. The challenge is not simply making better investment decisions than the average investor. The real challenge is making investment decisions that are better than those of the professionals who managed the big institutions.
  • 3. Invest---don't trade or speculate. The stock market is not a casino, but if you move in and out of stocks every time they move a point or two, the market will be your casino. And you may lose eventually---or frequently.
  • 4. Buy Value, not market trends or the economic outlook. Ultimately, it is the individual stocks that determine the market, not vice versa. Individual stocks can rise in a bear market and fall in a bull market. So buy individual stocks, not the market trend or the economic outlook.
  • 5. When buying stocks, search for bargains among quality stocks. Determining quality in a stock is like reviewing a restaurant. You don't expect it to be 100% perfect, but before it gets three or four stars you want it to be superior.
  • 6. Buy low. So simple in concept. So difficult in execution. When prices are high, a lot of investors are buying a lot of stocks. Prices are low when demand is low. Investors have pulled back, people are discouraged and pessimistic. But, if you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you'll have the same results as everyone else. By definition, you can't outperform the market.
  • 7. There's no free lunch. Never invest on sentiment. Never invest solely on a tip. You would be surprised how many investors do exactly this. Unfortunately there is sometimes compelling about a tip. Its very nature suggests inside information, a way to turn a fast profit.
  • 8. Do your homework or hire wise experts to help you. People will tell you: investigate before you invest. Listen to them. Study companies to learn what makes them successful.
  • 9. Diversify---by company, by industry. In stocks and bonds, there is safety in numbers. No matter how careful you are, you can neither predict nor control the future. So you must diversify.
  • 10. Invest for maximum total real return. This means the return after taxes and inflation. This is the only rational objective for most long-term investors.
  • 11. Learn from your mistakes. The only way to avoid mistakes is not to invest---which is the biggest mistake of all. So forgive yourself for your errors and certainly don't try to recoup your losses by taking bigger risks. Instead, turn each mistake into a learning experience.
  • 12. Aggressively monitor your investments. Remember, no investment is forever. Expect and react to change. And there are no stocks that you can buy and forget. Being relaxed doesn't mean being complacent.
  • 13. An investor who has all the answers doesn't even understand all the questions. A cocksure approach to investing will lead, probably sooner than later, to disappointment if not outright disaster. The wise investor recognizes that success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.
  • 14. Remain flexible and open-minded about types of investment. There are times to buy blue-chip stocks, cyclical stocks, convertible bonds, and there are times to sit on cash. The fact is there is no one kind of investment that is always best.
  • 15. Don't panic. Sometimes you won't have sold when everyone is selling, and you will be caught in a market crash. Don't rush to sell the next day. Instead, study your portfolio. If you can't find more attractive stocks, hold on to what you have.
  • 16. Do not be fearful or negative too often. There will, of course, be corrections, perhaps even crashes. But over time our studies indicate, stocks do go up...and up...and up. In this century or the next, it's still "Buy low, sell high."

Here's an interview with Sir John Templeton.

  • Interview with Sir John Templeton
    by Eleanor Laise
    1 April 2004 SmartMoney

    Sir John Speaks --- He bought low during the Depression, sold high during the Internet boom and made more than a few good calls in between; Sir John Templeton, dean of contrarians, tells us where to invest now

    Spend five minutes in Sir John Templeton's offices and you'll learn a lot about the legendary value investor. It's not the imposing portrait, the honorary degrees or even the certificate of knighthood. It's the books. Crisis Investing shares shelf space with Eat Right for Your Type. The Hand of God sits near Invest for Retirement and Natural Capitalism. Several thick volumes occupy substantial real estate on the top shelf. An investing bible? No -- it's the 1991 edition of the London Central Yellow Pages.

    A 1934 Yale graduate and Rhodes scholar, Templeton has a voracious appetite for information. The small-town Tennessee native became known as the Marco Polo of his Oxford class, thanks to a round-the-world postgraduation jaunt. In his late 20s he opened his own money-management firm and began to put international investing on the map. His flagship Templeton Growth fund has posted a 13.8 percent annualized return over 50 years, well ahead of the Standard & Poor's 500's 11.1 percent.

    Templeton's track record is full of prescient moves. In 1978, when Ford was near bankruptcy, he was a buyer. When everyone else piled into tech in 2000, he was a seller.

    Though he now lives in Lyford Cay, a decidedly well-heeled corner of the Bahamas, Templeton maintains a surprisingly modest lifestyle. He tools around at the wheel of a Lincoln Town Car. Orchids and bougainvillea upstage his whitewashed home. It's the ideal setting for a quiet retirement, but that's not Templeton's cup of tea. Since Franklin Resources bought his funds in 1992 for $440 million, he has devoted most of his time to philanthropy. The John Templeton Foundation gives $40 million a year to projects that explore the intersection of science and religion. Templeton's longtime philanthropic efforts earned the naturalized British citizen a knighthood in 1987. In his spare time, he hunts for global bargains, and at 91, he's clearly as curious as ever. As SmartMoney sat down in his cluttered conference room, it was Templeton who fired off the first question: "Have you written any books I can read?" Well, no. But enough about us.

    ---

    SmartMoney: How did a kid from rural Tennessee become a pioneer of global value investing?

    John Templeton: In Tennessee I didn't meet anybody who owned a share of anything. At Yale there were hundreds of boys from wealthy families, but not a single one who was investing outside one nation. I thought that was just not sensible. Surely they'd get better results if they searched everywhere rather than limiting their search to one country. Then I investigated the investment counsel profession and couldn't find any investment counselor who specialized in helping people invest outside America. So I saw a wide-open opportunity.

    ---

    Q: In 1939 you bought $100 worth of every New York Stock Exchange listed stock that was trading under $1 per share. There were 104 names, and 37 were already in bankruptcy. Why did you do it?

    John Templeton: I was sitting in my office at 30 Rockefeller Plaza in Manhattan when the news came out that Hitler had invaded Poland. It was obvious within a few days that it was going to lead to the Second World War. During war, everything that was in surplus, and therefore unprofitable, becomes scarce and profitable. Three years later I had a profit on 100 out of the 104.

    ---

    Q: What signs helped you see that the U.S. technology bubble was about to burst back in 2000?

    John Templeton: If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd. Four years ago the crowd was piling into tech stocks. The prices went sky-high. I sold my clients' technology stocks, and sold a lot of them short. I have put these philosophies into a simple statement: Help people. When people are desperately trying to sell, help them and buy. When people are enthusiastically trying to buy, help them and sell.

    ---

    Q: That's a good way to look at it.

    John Templeton: That's mainly a joke.

    ---

    Q: In 1992 you predicted that "the next 10 years will be the happiest period, and the most progressive," with "rapidly increasing prosperity for both Europe and America." Are you as optimistic about the next decade?

    John Templeton: Very few people realize how fortunate we are to live in the most glorious period in world history. There has been more progress in prosperity than in any previous century. The Dow Jones Industrial Average never went above 100 until a century ago. Now it's up to 10700, a hundredfold increase in one century. Probably in the next century, the increase will be equally great, if not greater. But I have to say that we are starting from an unusually high price for shares, not just in one industry, but in practically all industries and all nations.

    ---

    Q: What is your view of current U.S. stock valuations?

    John Templeton: Over the next five years, the chances are about 50/50 that the stock market will be lower. There is a risk that stock indexes will go down by over 30 percent or they'll go up 30 percent. Share prices are remarkably high right now. The Nasdaq Composite index is trading at 36 times next year's earnings and 95 times last year's earnings. That's high. For most of my lifetime I found bargains one place or another below 12 times earnings.

    ---

    Q: How does this environment compare with the market of 1972, when the Dow regained its late '60s highs of around 1000 but didn't break through that level again until 1982?

    John Templeton: That was a period of stock market optimism, which goes in cycles. There are at least five of these cycles every century. The one in those years you mentioned was a normal cycle. This one seems to be more exaggerated. Prices in those years never went as high as they are now.

    ---

    Q: Are there any sectors in the U.S. that look cheap?

    John Templeton: No. I wish there were, but I can't find them. The answer is to play safe. And playing safe means diversifying among nations, industries and types of securities. At present I don't think anybody should have over half their assets in common stock.

    ---

    Q: And you believe that no one should have more than 50 percent of his or her portfolio in a single country?

    John Templeton: Yes. And no more than 25 percent in one industry.

    ---

    Q: Do you think there is a real estate bubble in the U.S.?

    John Templeton: Yes. Real estate is very different from the stock market because it's so local and separate in terms of type. But in many locations and many types of real estate, prices are dangerously high right now. And in real estate it's easier to say what's dangerously high. You just look at what it costs to rebuild. Right here in the Bahamas, I have recently seen people pay four or five times for a house what it would cost to rebuild.

    ---

    Q: Do U.S. bonds look more attractive than equities?

    John Templeton: Compared to the cost of living [measured by inflation], you can still buy American bonds. But at present there are bonds of other nations that seem safer. It's wise to invest in nations that do not have an unfavorable balance of trade or a government deficit.

    ---

    Q: Which countries seem the safest?

    John Templeton: There are not many. There are almost 200 nations on earth and about 150 different currencies, and most of them have problems even greater than America's. But Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia and Russia don't have big problems.

    ---

    Q: A few years ago you were buying STRIPs, or Treasury bonds with the coupons cut off. Do you still like them?

    John Templeton: I bought STRIPs because the yield to maturity was about 10 percent better than what you could get on Treasury bonds. But I found I did better by changing from U.S. Treasury STRIPs to STRIPs of nations with stronger currencies, like the ones we just talked about.

    ---

    Q: Where do you think the U.S. dollar will go from here?

    John Templeton: The chances of the U.S. dollar going down in relation to the euro are no more than 50/50. The euro has already gone up 47 percent in the last two years. But the yen is up only 25 percent. Japan has put hundreds of billions of dollars into buying American money. The quantities are so great that that can't continue much longer. Japanese money is likely to go up in the future.

    ---

    Q: Are you concerned about inflation?

    John Templeton: Long term, because we have more and more democracies in the world, we're going to have more and more inflation. Politicians who are willing to spend too much are the ones who get reelected. Look back at history. Inflation has averaged about 2 percent a year. Probably, it will average somewhat more than that in the next century. But from a short-range standpoint, there does not yet seem to be a shortage of almost any product. Until there's a shortage, you're not likely to see higher prices.

    ---

    Q: What do you see as the biggest threat to economic recovery in the U.S.?

    John Templeton: We don't need an economic recovery because we're already operating at a very high level. The greatest threat to maintaining this level of economic activity is debt. There's never been a time when people worldwide, and especially in America, had such a high proportion of debt. I think 20 percent of people who have mortgages on their homes are likely to lose them in foreclosures. When a home goes into bankruptcy, it's sold at auction. That pushes the price down and affects the prices of other homes.

    ---

    Q: Does the U.S. government's debt level worry you?

    John Templeton: Oh, yes. There has never been any government anywhere in the world that has such a big deficit in the federal budget. And there's never been a nation in history that had such an adverse balance of trade. However, if you look at those debts and balance of trade as a percentage of gross national product, they're bad, but not unprecedented.

    ---

    Q: What does that mean for investors?

    John Templeton: It's one more reason why this is a dangerous time to own stocks.

    ---

    Q: Even foreign equities?

    John Templeton: Yes. In my long history I could always find some nation where people were desperately trying to sell. Now I can't find a place where people are trying desperately to get out of equities.

    ---

    Q: So what do you think about the rush to invest in China?

    (MORE)

    John Templeton: The cycles will be much wider and more frequent in China because of the lack of information. Having said that, if you're investing, you should put a fairly large part of your total assets in China because within as short a period as 30 years, China is likely to have the largest gross national product any nation has ever had.

    Q: Is India as great an opportunity as China?

    John Templeton: Yes. You could say almost the same thing about India, except in terms of speed. The improvement in India is wonderful but not as fast. But the Indian market is up more than 80 percent in 12 months. That's a danger signal. It means you're going to take a lot of risk that you wouldn't have taken a year before.

    ---

    Q: What's the world's best stock market now?

    John Templeton: The best answer is none. There are so many securities analysts working on that question that the prices in different markets are less out of line than normal.

    ---

    Q: So an influx of information has made life difficult for global value investors?

    John Templeton: When I became an investment counselor, there were only 17 security analysts on earth. Now, in America alone, there are more than 32,000, and they do have an effect on prices by doing research on where to find bargains.

    ---

    Q: If you were starting out in the investing world today, what would you do?

    John Templeton: Play safe. If you don't have your money in equities, it's very difficult to find a place to put it. Gold has already gone up. . . . People also tend to think it's safe to put your money in the bank. When I was studying in the U.K., people swore that it was safe to put your money in pounds sterling. But within a few years, sterling went down from $5 a pound to $1.50 a pound because of the war. If gold and bank accounts are no longer safe, where can you put it? Diversify. Don't put too much in any one thing.

    ---

    Q: What have you been buying lately?

    John Templeton: I believe there are fewer opportunities than I've ever seen in 91 years. In the last year I've been using market-neutral hedge funds, whose policy is to have always the same quantity of longs and shorts. I have invested lately in two funds that are managed by people who worked for me when I was in the investment business: Jane Siebels-Kilnes' Siebels Multi-Fund and Mark Holowesko's Holowesko Global fund. They aren't registered with the SEC, however, so American stockbrokers can't sell them.

    ---

    Q: After the corporate scandals of recent years, how can we restore trust in the markets?

    John Templeton: The answer is comparison. When you're worried about those scandals, stop and think, what nation would you feel safer in? At what time in world history could you feel safer? I don't think you'll find any time when the degree of information, the degree of honesty, is higher than it is today.

    ---

    Q: You don't think there's anything the government should do to restore trust?

    John Templeton: Yes. Keep their hands off. It has been proven over and over that the best regulation is free competition. Those that are not doing a good job for the public get squeezed out. I can't think of any nation where the quantity of regulation is already not too high.

    ---

    Q: A couple of days ago, Franklin Resources, the firm that bought your funds, was accused of participating in market-timing arrangements. What's your take on the fund scandal?

    John Templeton: Everything I've just said applies double to that. Can you think of any industry or any nation where there are fewer questionable practices than there are in American mutual funds? I can't. If all the claims in the news were added up, what would it cost a mutual fund owner? One cent.

    ---

    Q: You've lived here in the Bahamas for 31 years . . .

    John Templeton: Yes. I've found my results for investment clients were far better here than when I had my office in 30 Rockefeller Plaza. When you're in Manhattan, it's much more difficult to go opposite to the crowd.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

神奇的26%

李孙耀 - 李财有方
2010年1月11日

三年开一番和神奇的26%是有关系的.

只要能够取得每年26%的回酬,三年的时间我们的资本就可以开一番!

例子: 1000元的投资,每年成长26%.

第1年1000元就变成1260元.

第2年1260元就变成1588元.

第3年1588元就变成2000元.

所以,三年一番就是每年26%的回酬.

那么,如何才能够取得每年26%的回酬呢?

就手事实,每年26%是相当高的回酬,除了股票市场,其他的投资项目都无法做到这一点.

这里所指的26巴仙回酬是平均数,也就是说,在一段长时间里,有些年的回酬超过26%,有些年的回酬低过26%。总之在计算成绩的那一年它能够取得每年平均26%的回酬就可以了。

例如:1元的股票,在三年期间上到2元,就是取得了每年26%的回酬。不管它是否在第一年从1元跌到五毛钱,然后第二年又只是盘在五毛钱左右,最后才在第三年从五毛钱回升到2元。

总之,只要在3年期间它能够从1元上到2元就是开了一番,也就是取得了每年平均26%的回酬。

吃过股市苦头的股友可能会反驳说:

在一个漫长的熊市,如果是在牛市套牢了,10元股票变成1元都有可能,哪里还可以开番?

我的看法是:

如果投资方法错误,10元股票变1元是绝对可能的事情。

但是,只要投资方法正确,1元股票变2元也是绝对可能的事情。

对失败者而言,股票市场就是鳄鱼潭。对成功者而言,股票市场就是聚宝盘。

对投机者而言,股票市场就像是赌场,是个赌博的好地方。对投资者而言,股票市场就是个商场,是供投资的好地方。

投机就是拿本钱去赌博,十赌九输,所以把股票当作是赌博的人是输者居多。投资就是拿本钱做生意,将本求利,所以把股票当作是生意的人是赚多亏少。

在马来西亚的股票市场,投机者是比投资者来得多,所以亏钱的人比赢钱的人多,是意料中的事。

观念正确开番致富

要靠“开番”来致富,就得有正确的观念:买股票是"投资”而不是“投机”!

投资是要时间才能够见功效。同样的,开番也是要时间才能够见功效。所以,唯有投资才能够做到连连开番,而投机是做不到的。

把买股票当作是投资一门生意就是正确的投资思想。只要做到这一点,再加上耐心和时间,利用“开番”来致富就是简单的事情了!

巴菲特买股票当投资

美国股神巴菲特,就是把股票当作是投资一门生意。所以在五十多年的投资生涯里他的财富就可以连连开番,别人玩股票输得焦头烂额,他的财富却是越积越多,今天他的身家已经是世界排名第二了,只比比盖茨少一点。股神华伦巴菲特的身家是如何开番的呢?

巴菲特在20岁那年的身家是2万美元,到了70岁他的身家是200亿美元。20岁到70岁是50年,2万到200亿的距离是20番,所以巴菲特的开番速度就是每两年半开一个番。(50年/20番=2.5年)

怎样证明2万到200亿是20番呢?

很简单,每十番就是一千倍。

2万到2000万是十番,增加了1000倍。而2000万到200亿也是十番,又增加了1000倍。所以2万到200亿就是20番。

巴菲特的开番速度是平均每2.5年一个番,换成一年的回酬率大约就是30巴仙。在漫长的50年里可以维持每年平均30巴仙的回酬率,这成绩就算不是人类的极限,应该也相差不远了。

所以身为投资人我们不必浪费时间最求每年100%的回酬,那是不实际的。

很多投机者的目标是在短短的几个月内,就赚取100%的回酬,这种成绩肯定是不能长久的。

我们没有股神的功力,所以应该满足于每年平均26巴仙的回酬,也就是三年一个番的目标。

当然,是否有这个能力又是另一回始,至少我们都有一个梦想,然后努力的去实现它。

利用‘开番’来致富

李孙耀 李财有方 - 南洋商报 财经版 2009-12-28

有一位刚刚就业的大学生告诉我:年轻人都是穷困的,几乎每个人都是负翁,因为大家都有PTPN的债务要还;汽车的贷款要供,努力工作的目的只是为了脱离负翁的行列而已。没有人敢想象自己将来可以成为百万富翁。

他感叹地说:我们这里的薪水实在太低了。在香港,麦当劳的员工每个月薪水都有 8000港币(约合4000令吉),而大马的大学生毕业生只有2000多令吉的月薪而已。比较之下,真得让人怀疑,政府是否有能力使大马成为高收入的国家。

整体而言,大马要成为高收入的国家,的确是困难,但是,个人而言,要脱离穷困,迈入有钱人的行列还是有机会的。

只要懂得储蓄和投资。不管薪水有多低,尽量减少无谓的开支;尽量把储蓄到的钱投入会增值的资产上面,致富还是有机会的。

储蓄和投资是要两者并重的,缺一不可。很多人都以为财富的累积是靠‘加法’,一路,一路的加上去。例如:1,2,3,4,5,... ... 如此这样的加上去。

其实财富的累积是靠“乘法”,一路,一路乘上去。例如:1,2,4,8,16, ... ... 如此这样的乘上去。

人们错误的观念是因为已经习惯‘人赚钱’,所以就以为只要付出劳力去工作,然后努力的储蓄,财富就会一点一滴的累积出来。

通过打工来的赚钱,每年所增加的数目都是根据所储蓄的数额来计算,所以财富累积用加法。

其实,正确的致富方法是靠“钱赚钱”,而钱赚钱就是投资。通过投资,每年所增加的数额都是根据回酬率来计算,所以财富的累积就是用乘法。

开番时间越短越好

用乘法来累积财富当然比用加法来得快了,这就是钱赚钱比人赚钱来得快的理由。

把钱拿去投资就是钱赚钱。投资的钱增加了一倍就是开了一个番,这就是所谓的资本开番。

开番讲究的是时间,越短就越好。想要致富就要懂得让资本开番,而资本的大小并不是最重要,重点在于速度,开番的速度。

这就是复利的奥妙:

一千开十番就变成一百万;一万开十番就变成一千万。 一千或一万都不是大数目,每个人都会有,这是事实。而百万或千万却是每个人的奋斗目标和梦想。

事实和梦想的距离只有十番而已。只要做得到十番,梦想就是事实了。

详解请看附表:

开始: 1万 本钱;
第一番: 2万;
第二番: 4万;
第三番: 8万;
第四番: 16万;
第五番: 32万;
第六番: 64万;
第七番: 128万;
第八番: 256万;
第九番: 512万;
第十番:1024万;

如果开一番费时 3年,那么开十番也只是30年的时间而已。

十番绝对神奇的!因为 1万变成千万只需要十个番而已!

奇怪,是谁需要千万,年轻人的目标不是百万吗?

我问这位刚刚就业的大学生:如果起点是 六万,达到百万需要几个番?
他想了一下就回答:4个番!

如果他不买那辆价值 6万的新车,他要成为百万富翁只需要 4个番。

原来他的梦想还是有机会实现,只要懂得让钱开番就可以了。

《common stock & uncommon profit》

Philip A. Fisher 在他写的 《common stock & uncommon profit》 书中,列出了15 个检验标准来寻找值得长期持有的成长股:

  1. 这家公司的产品或服务有没有足够的市场潜能,至少几年内营业额能否取得大幅的增长?
  2. 为了在现有产品的增长潜能放缓时,为了能够进一步使公司的营业额保持增长,管理层是不是有决心去持续开发新产品或新工艺?
  3. 以公司的规模来看,它的研发部门(R&D)的效率如何?
  4. 公司有没有高人一等的营销组织(sales organization) ?
  5. 公司的的赚幅(profit margin)高不高?
  6. 公司做了什么事,以维持或改善其赚幅?
  7. 公司的劳资和人事关系 (labour & personnel relations) 是否维持得很好?
  8. 公司的行政人员关系 (executive relations) 是否维持得很好?
  9. 公司管理层的深度够吗?
  10. 公司的成本分析与会计管理做的如何?
  11. 在其行业中,公司有什么独到之处,可以为投资者提供线索,以了解此公司相对于其竞争者,有什么突出?
  12. 公司对于其本身的盈利展望是短期的,还是长期的?
  13. 在公司的成长中,会不会涉及大量的发股融资(equity fincancing),而冲淡了现有股东的权益?
  14. 管理层是不是只向投资者们报喜不报忧(在公司运作良好时畅所欲言,面对问题时三缄其口)?
  15. 管理层是否拥有毋庸置疑的诚信?


以上中文版翻译得有点涩,若看不懂,请参考原文:
  1. Does the company have products or services with sufficientmarket potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for atleast several years?
  2. Does the management have a determinationto continue to develop products or processes that will still furtherincrease total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currentlyattractive product lines have largely been exploited?
  3. How effective are the company’s research and development efforts in relation to its size?
  4. Does the company have an above-average sales organization?
  5. Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin?
  6. What is the company doing to maintain or improve profit margins?
  7. Does the company have outstanding labor and personnel relations?
  8. Does the company have outstanding executive relations?
  9. Does the company have depth to its management?
  10. How good are the company’s cost analysis and accounting control?
  11. Arethere other aspects of the business, somewhat peculiar to the industryinvolved, which will give the investor important clues as to howoutstanding the company may be in relation to its competition?
  12. Does the company have a short-rage or long-range outlook in regard to profits?
  13. Inthe foreseeable future will the growth of the company requiresufficient equity financing to that the larger number of shares thenoutstanding will largely cancel the existing stockholders’ benefit fromthis anticipated growth?
  14. Does the management talk freely toinvestors about it affairs when things are going well but “clam up”when troubles and disappointments occur?
  15. Does the company have a management of unquestionable integrity?

Thursday, September 9, 2010

怎样选股? 完结篇


By: 小旺子

会选股或分折财务报告,就能步向财务自由之路么了?

若看上图便晓得并不是,我从选股讲起,因为这是大家所关心的。

个人理财、投资为起点(如何致富系列?),财务自由之路是我们的目的地。中间经过时间的大门,时光一去不再来,投资错了,亏损的是财务和时间。所以,诸位要慎重。

选股中,管理层的信誉、能力是没有数目字可测量的,我们总不能也遂样给个评分,那也太难吧。

什么股会长期成长?唯靠历史数据推测未来,而经我思考许久,也决定将现成流动现金Free Cash Flow加入我们的方程式,共占2分。修考后请参考 怎样选股? (2) 选股的照妖镜 因此,我们的选股之法也全面化了。

接着我将开个新系列「系统教学」,那是个我根据所述的方程式所写的电脑系统,『等着瞧吧!』

怎样选股? (14) 现金是王 Cash is King


By: 小旺子

一家公司盈利年年成长,但却面临倒闭的危机,只因被拖欠的债务没收回来,设有现金周转,故说现金是王。

另一家公司也是利年年成长,债务高涨,突然暴发假账风波,皆因,为欺骗投资者,故意报大销售额。

这一切,又得劳动我们的照妖镜,现金流动表。

重温一下,

现金流动表Cash Flow Statement 的演算为
净增加/减少现金数值 Net Increase/Decrease in Cash Flow
=
营业活动现金流Cash Flows from Operating Activities
(扣旧,债务人,债权人,存货Depreciation, Debtor, Creditor, Inventory)
+
投资活动现金流Cash Flows from Investing Activities
(房地产,机器 Building, Land, Equipment)
+
融资活动现金流Cash Flows from Financing Activities
(股息,债务,贷款Dividend, Debt, Loan)

我们首先看净增加/减少现金数值 Net Increase/Decrease in Cash Flow ,一般上若是增加,是健全成长,若为减少我们便得小心,

基本上赤字预算如下 GREEN PACKET BERHAD 不断发展扩充其 WI-MAX 发射站的建设,故有负现金流动 (RM-26,685,000)。 但其银行现金还充足RM 208,001,000,应付其营业活动 (RM-20,921,000),但投资话动却比较吃紧 (RM-139,180.000)

接下来,一般上都会以

营业活动现金流Cash Flows from Operating Activities > 收入 Net Income
来检定公司的收入有否转换为现金。

最后,投资者所关心的公司是否有能力分花红 Dividend,这得看公司的现金有多少,

现成流动现金Free Cash Flow
= Net Income + Depreciation/Amortization – Change in Working Capital – Capital Expenditures
= Cash Flows from Operating Activities – Capital Expenditures

以海鸥集团为例,RM53,764,552 – RM 9,243,668 = RM 44,520,884,总现金为 RM73,265,890, 可谓现金充足,故公司有充够能资本回购,买自己的股票并分发花红。

怎样选股? (13) 钱不够用?



By: 小旺子

最近我们的香蕉档接到一宗大买卖,附近的超市由於缺货,向我们定购了 RM3,000 的香蕉,算是喜讯吧!送完货后,我们正在发梦成立香蕉档连锁店。

不久,你便通知我,我们「钱不够用?」,没现金办货,我好奇的问:「咱们刚做一单大买卖,怎会没钱呢?」 你答道:「钱还设收到呀!那是六十天账期。」

对了!我们做账方式是 权责[应计]发生制 Accrual Basic of Accounting,就是说你月底结账时,收入 Revenue 包括未收到的数目。 同样的,如果你欠供应商 supplier 的钱,一样也当成购货记账。

基於此,一间公司有很高的收入,但若欠款在需运用时,还没收回,便造成周转不灵的困境,故研究上市公司,现金流动表 Cash Flow Statement 便变成重要的线索。

先看上图:

从图中,我们知道此表主要分
1. 营业活动Cash Flows from Operating Activities
债务增加时,别人欠我们钱时,我们的现金减少;债务增加时,别人欠我们钱时,我们的现金增加。 所以,你看此项目时有加的数值,也有减的数值。
最常见为折旧 depreciation, 是要加回去,因为当资产如汽车一年折旧 RM3,000, 公司是没有真正拿出现金。

2. 投资话动Cash Flows from Investing Activities
投资话动一般上指购买不动产如机器设备、土地房产、出售股票等。

3. 融资活动Cash Flows from Financing Activities
融资活动包括向银行借贷、发放股息等。

最后一项为总结 summary
a. 净增加/减少现金数值 Net Increase/Decrease
b. 财政年度初现金数值Beginning of Financial Year
c. 财政年度尾现金数值End of Financial Year

今天到此为止,留意下个日志的现金流动表分析。

怎样选股? (12) 书中自有黄金屋,数据的搜索 – 2

By: 小旺子

现在让我们完成我们的方程式 Formula

(2) DE < 0.60 (2 分 = 20%比重)
负债比率=负债总额/资产净值 Debt Ratio DE = Total Liabilities / Shareholders Equity
Debtor Ratio = 58,037,987 / 146,072,333 = 0.3973 * 100% = 40%

(4) Liquidity Ratio > 1 (1 分=10%比重)
流动性比率=流动资产/流动负债` Liquidity Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Liquidity Ration = 153,958,228 / 57,973,693 = 2.66

(1) 股本回报率 ROE > 15
a/b = 0.638 / 1.760 = 0.3625 * 100 = 36.25

(3) 股息生息率>定期存款 DY < 0.60
c/RM 3.02 (28/11/08) = 0.40 / 3.02 = 0.1324 = 13% (注意须付25%税收)

(5) 利益率 > 10
RM 49,117,955 / RM 373,822,575 = 0.13 * 100% = 13%

在这五项加起来共8分,加上我己演算的三年都赚钱,一年比一年高,加二分共 10分。

你可以自己用其他公司练习一下。

我们没有将现金流动表 Cash Flow Statement,考虑在内,只要现金是正常便可,若你好的建议?不妨让我知道。

不久,我也会谈谈现金流动表。

怎样选股? (11) 书中自有黄金屋,数据的搜索 – 1



By:小旺子

首先,我们重温我们的方程式,如下:

方程式 Formula
(1) ROE > 15 (2 分 = 20%比重)
股本回报率=每股收益/有形资产净值 Return on Equity ROE = EPS/NTA
净收益/资产净值 Net Income/ Total Shareholder’s Equity

(2) DE < de =" Total"> 3 (2 分=20%)
股息生息率>定期存款 Dividend Yield > Current Fixed Deposit Rate

(4) Liquidity Ratio > 1 (1 分=10%比重)
流动性比率=流动资产/流动负债` Liquidity Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities

(5) 利益率 > 10 Profitability Ratio > 10 (1 分=10%比重)
然后,遂一在年报中寻索答案,请点击下图以显示大图,press to enlarge the following image,请依图中点击,第6 是另一面,

(1) 股本回报率 ROE > 15
a/b = 0.638 / 1.760 = 0.3625 * 100 = 36.25

(3) 股息生息率>定期存款 DY < 02 =" 0.1324"> 10
RM 49,117,955 / RM 373,822,575 = 0.13 * 100% = 13%

在 怎样选股? (7) 你的生意好赚么? 己算出,

(2) 和 (4) 你可在资产负债表找到Balance Sheet,这功课交由你去做先,下回分晓,我会算出来给你会看。

上达总分为 8分=80%,还有 2分=20%在过去三年都赚钱,每股盈利年年增加成长里。

简单的做法利用 announcements 内第四季报 Quarter 4 的资产负债表Balance Sheet和损益表Income Statement 会以较快找到答案。但在审核audit 后,数目会有稍微差别。

怎样选股? (10) 解读年报的基本知识


By: 小旺子

今天这个日志,对会做账目的人来说,是太基本,可以不看,但若你完全没有会计知识的话,那变得很重要。 但也别觉得,噢!会计等於头痛,其原理也是普通知识 common sense。

又回到我们合伙的香蕉档,自与老爸借了 RM1,000后,我们的资本就增加到 RM 4,000, 但你也应知,我们确实只有 RM 3,000, RM 1,000 不是我们的。

我们的资本
资本 = 资产 – 负债 Equity = Assets – Liabilities
RM3,000 = RM4,000 – RM1,000



资产 = 资本 + 负债Assets = Equity + Liabilities
RM4,000 = RM3,000 + RM1,000

其特色是左右边相等,资产负债表Balance Sheet。

我们的资产又分为固定资产 Fixed Assets or Non-Current Assets 如发电机和桌椅,不易转为现金的。 而流动资产 Current Assets 如现金、银行存款和债务人 Debtor。

负债也分流动负债Current Liabilities和长期负债 Long Term Liabilities,流动负债为债权人 Creditor、短期债务。

请看右上图,一图胜千言,请翻到 Page 79页,海鸥集团的资产负债表Balance Sheet:

怎样选股? (9) 借多少钱做生意才好?

By: 小旺子

我们的方程式:

DE < 0.60
负债比率=负债总额/资产净值 Debt Ratio DE = Total Liabilities / Shareholders Equity

先回我们的合伙香蕉档,我们想卖龙果,以便增长收入。因为缺乏资金,若不借钱我们便无法扩充营业,於是便向父亲免利息借了 RM1,000,每月答应还父亲 RM 200, 为从简我用 RM3,000 为资产净值。

RM 1,000/RM 3,000 = 0.33 或 33%

个案一
不幸的,月尾结账,龙果生意促使我们亏损RM1,000,使原本每月可赚 RM1,000 祗消了。我们变得没有盈利,现金流量 Cash Flow成了问题,还欠父亲 RM200。
那么33%的负债比率太高了。

个案二
如果我们把结果改成因为投资龙果生意,还了欠父亲的,我们多赚了 RM 1,000,净收益加卖香蕉的共 RM 2,000。 我们的每股收益EPS RM 2,000 / 3,000 = 0.66 sen, 便从 RM0.33 倍增加至 RM 0.66。

从上述你可看出,不借钱或借少钱,生意不可扩充,借钱当然也有风险。那得看营理层的能力了。

一般人的标准设於 DE < 0.50, 我愿承受多10%风险, 这个数值是投资者的个人价值观为标准, 设有一个固定的数值。

有些上市公司贷款来分利息或转到其他公司去,这都是要留意的。

注:我们要先讲借钱才可进一步实例,大慨要多几课,我便会指出如何在年报中,找到上述之数。

怎样选股? (8) 上市公司的成绩单

By: 小旺子

一天我们香蕉档开股东会议,而上市公司每年必须招开常年股东大会,以汇报公司业务进届和通过议案,我们这个小生意,也有开会。

除了想知道赚不赚钱外,我也想知道公司有什么财产?够不够现金周转?

而上市公司的年报 Annual Report,也主要有3个:

1. 赚不赚钱 Income Statement损益表 (Trading Profit & Loss Account)
2. 有什么财产 Balance Sheet资产负债表
3. 够不够现金周转 Cash Flow Statement现金流动表

我们方程式里所需的数据都在这三个报告里。 只要懂解读,你便步入价值投资的第一步,你具备了基本分析上市公司的数据。

只要你读完我这个「怎样选股?」系列,投资的路上,你就比我省下多年的摸索,也比许多投资者走前了几步。

你是否觉得比他人幸运呢? 希望你能珍惜这免费的教育。

很多人都看同一本书,有人学到珍贵的知识,有人却当消遣。

接下来的日子里,我将介绍资产负债表Balance Sheet。 你淮备好了么?

怎样选股? (7) 你的生意好赚么?


By: 小旺子

我们投资做生意都想知道是否赚钱?好赚么?当我说好赚时,便带出我们方程式中的,

利益率 > 10 Profitability Ratio > 10

利益率 = 净利润/总收入 Profitability Ratio = Net Profit / Revenue

我先回到我们合伙的香蕉档,我们以 RM3,000 为成本,经营了一个月净赚RM1,000, 销售额为 RM 2,000。

RM 1,000 / RM 2000 = 0.50 * 100% = 50%

哗!五十巴利益率,卖香蕉,好好赚。 OOPS! 还有些费用没算啦。

现在来算算海鸥集团好赚么? 看参考下图:

RM 49,117,955 / RM 373,822,575 = 0.13 * 100% = 13%

很不错的利益率,许多上市公司都低於10%,我们方程式 利益率 > 10,便表示要找利益率大於10%。

从这个利率我们得知这个行业的赚幅,若有同样一个行业或竞争对手,我们比较一下利益率,也可知管理层是否有效率控制化费,例如薪金、交通费等等。

这里我们也看到每股收益 EPS 60.28= RM 0.60,注意这是仙 SEN,初学者常把第当成 RM 60.28,若是,那就发达了。 这是2008整年的数据,回顾我们合伙的一个月 香蕉档每股收益 EPS = RM 0.33。 每股收益EPS是个重要的数据,日后将用於计算ROE。(股本回报率=每股收益/有形资产净值 Return on Equity ROE = EPS/NTA)

注:将来我会写深入分析,目前只考虑实用的,投资一切以简为最实用,越深入往往是研究学问用的。

怎样选股? (6) 上网找上市公司的财务报告


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By: 小旺子


今天我们要找是海鸥集团的财务报告:

步骤 1点击 http://www.klse.com.my

步骤 2点击菜单 1 Listed Companies 或将鼠标移至 Listed Companies 选项 Company Announcements

依下图2 Annual Reports -> 3 Current -> 4 By Company,顺序点击。
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步骤 3 依下图点击 5 H -> 6 HAI-O ENTERPRISE BERHAD
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步骤 4 依下图点击 7 06/10/2008 Annual Report 2008
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步骤 5 8按右键,选项 Save Target as … 存档文件HAIO-AnnualReport2008 (3.5MB).pdf
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步骤 6 打开HAIO-AnnualReport2008 (3.5MB).pdf, 翻到 81面 79页 损益表INCOME STATEMENT
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这便达到是我们今天所要做的功课,你可以自己试找多几个公司为练习。接下来我们将分析这个损益表与我们香蕉档的分别,你自己应先尝试解读以达到最高的学习效率。

若无法打开文件,请下戴安装以下软件 http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html

注: 为了让网页届现快,我降低了图片的素像。

怎样选股? (5) 开香蕉档,学看财务报告

By:小旺子

我的宗旨是根本简易,故要学财务报告,便得你我合资开个香蕉档,开始讲起。

在夜市 pasar malam 卖香蕉是最简单不过,虽然香蕉种类也非常多,为简化起见,就当全部香蕉都一样吧!

普通一个档口也要桌子、椅子、 子、电灯和发电机。 估计要 RM3,000 的成本,你有RM2,000,邀我成股东,买进 RM1,000 的股份。换句话说我们的股东资本为 RM3,000,每股 one unit为RM1.00。

那你去开档了! 卖香蕉啦! 香蕉香又甜!

一个月后,我想知道,有没有赚钱?
(*假设一个月开档10天,每天收入为RM200, RM200*10天=RM2,000)

简单的说, 盈余 profit = 收入 – 成本。 Income – Cost

你却吵着说:「老板,卖香蕉也要戴费,汽油很贵的。」(商家都有的籍口)

我想言之有理,应该是盈余 profit = 收入 – (成本+费用)。 Income – (Cost+
Expenses)。但要记得不是每个生意都赚钱的,所以也应说成盈余或亏损profit or Loss。

那我就为做了个营业损益表Trading Profit & Loss Account,来算算有没有钱赚? (损=亏损 益=收益)

我们一个月净赚了 RM1,000, 若将之除於我们的股本, RM 1,000 / 3000 = RM 0.33,这就是每股收益 Earning per share EPS。

注意的是 3,000 是股或称单位Unit,而不是价格,我们每股为RM 1.00 * 3,000单位Unit = RM 3,000 (本钱=股本=资金 Capital / Owner Equity/Shareholder Equity)。

在股市,这是方便计算损益profit or loss,当股价升上 RM1.20,无形中我们价值升高,RM1.20 * 3000 = RM 3,600。

(术语认识 Lots or Board Lot成交单位 1 lot = 100 shares/Units,这是吉隆坡股市所订的数值。)

(零星股 Special Lot or Odd Lot 为小於100股的股票。例如:35股)

(证券经纪人、股票经纪人 Stock Broker,Remisier )

当然费用方便还包括工资Salary、执照费 License Fee、塑胶袋 Plastic Bag等,在这里简化说明,我们也假设没存货。

怎样选股? (4) 复制猫选股法

By:小旺子

复制猫 copy cat 选股法为向成功人士学习的方法,我们模仿其方法,以期达到同样的成果, 讲文雅点称为模拟法 Modeling。例如我国有许多连锁店经管得非常成功,其模仿的对象有麦当劳、肯德鸡等。

任何一种学习若善於利用「复制猫」的方法,必成就非凡。 君不见经济强国日本的发达,启於模仿他国的科技,台湾、韩国、中国即不列外。

那么我选股首选股神巴菲特 Warren Buffett,世界第二最有钱的人,他是纯粹靠投资股票发达的,持股三十年如一日。我们想投资成功,就非得向学习股神巴菲特不可。

股神巴菲特选股的股本回报率 ROE > 15,是全世界的价值投资者 Value Investing 所推荐,因此,我们方程式启於此。这项目是必选不可例外,达不到这条件的股只,一律不可选。

在实战里,有很多投资者,临场又忘了这个重要的定义。千万要记得,这是非君莫嫁,非卿莫娶的地步。

在上个日志,我留下一些方程式让你自创投资方程式,其实并不是什么制造火箭的秘诀 Rocket Science ,只有普通常识,若你没有信心,可模仿 copy我。

讲明一点,就是要一家会赚钱,债务少,赚率高,信誉好的上市公司。又有如鸡旦可用沸水煮熟,可以半生熟,可以炒,可以烹,可以加青豆……。 而选公司的材料则是 A. 业绩表现比率 Performance Ratio,B. 流动性比率 Liquidity Ratio,C. 成长比率Growth Ratio,D. 债务比率 Debt Ratio 。

条条大路通罗马,不要硬硬只独孤一味,认为别人都不行,唯有自己最清高,这也是投资者的通病,切记!切记!勿复制!勿复制! Don’t copy! Don’t Copy!

怎样选股? (3) 选股的揭秘

By: 小旺子

在上个日志, 怎样选股? (2) 选股的照妖镜里,我列出了选股方程式 Formula。今天将揭开方程式后面的意义。

基本分析的方程式可分为四大类:

A. 业绩表现比率 Performance Ratio 占40%
B. 流动性比率 Liquidity Ratio占10%
C. 成长比率Growth Ratio占30%
D. 债务比率 Debt Ratio 占20%

而我们的方程式正以这四大类形成, 方程式 Formula
(1) 股本回报率ROE > 15 A,B类占总分数20%
(2) DE < 0.60 负债比率 D类占总分数20%
(3) DY > 3股息生息率 > 定期存款 A类占总分数20%
(4) 流动性比率 Liquidity Ratio > 1 B类占总分数10%
(5) 利益率 > 10 Profitability Ratio > 10 A类占总分数10%
过去三年都赚钱,每股盈利EPS年年增加成长。C类占总分数20%

所以我比较注重业绩表现比率,负债少,有股息的股只。

懂得这个原理,你也可自创一套自己的选股方程式,今天我揭秘教你*钓鱼,你可以自己去捉鱼了。 若你还年青,可不省略股息一项,套上自己喜欢的方程式,我年纪大了,必须要抱着股息

不过,千万不要别将之复亲化,记得无论是基本、技术分析,什么方程式都拿来用,必然会迷失自己,记得要看清真相,便得用「根本简易投资法」。

还要多几课便可实际去找实例算,我希望你是怀着期侍的心情,再谈,祝愉快。

*给人一条鱼,你养活他一天,教人约鱼,养活他终生。
Give a man a fish; you have fed him for today.
Teach a man to fish ; and you have fed him for a lifetime.

附方程式, 让你自创:
Performance Ratio
Gross Profit Margin = (Profit Before Tax/Turnover)*100
Net Profit Margin = (Profit After Tax/Turnover)*100
Return on Shareholders Equity = Profit After Tax/Total Shareholders Funds
Current Assets Turnover = Revenue/Current Assets
Fixed Assets Turnover = Revenue/Fixed Assets
Total Assets Turnover = Revenue/Total Assets
Revenue Per Share = Revenue/Issued Shares
Inventory Turnover = Revenue/Inventory

Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio = Current Assets/Current Liabilities
Acid Test Ratio = (Current Assets-Stock)/Current Liabilities
Interest Coverage = Profit Before Tax/Interest Charge

Growth Ratio
Annual Revenue Growth Rate(%) = ((Current Year Revenue-Last Year Revenue)*100)/Last Year Revenue
Annual Profit Growth Rate (%) = ((Current Year Profit-Last Year Profit)*100)/Last Year Profit

Debt Ratio
Debtors Turnover (Days) = (Debtors/Turnover)*365
Creditors Turnover (Days) = (Creditors/Turnover)*365
Debt Ratio (%) = (Total Liabilities/Total Assets)*100
Current Debt To Equity Ratio (%) = (Current Liabilities/Shareholders Fund)*100
Total Debt To Equity Ratio (%) = (Total Liabilities/Shareholders Fund)*100

怎样选股? (2) 选股的照妖镜

By: 小旺子

许多投资者对选股都觉得陌生、深奥,常常去问人,问了又没信心,买了又不安心。我在此这将之系统化,只要依下列条件选股,便可获优质股。

定义 Definition
优质股 = 良好财务增长 + 成长行业 + 管理能力强 、 信誉佳的领导层。

先决条件 Condition
过去三年都赚钱,每股盈利年年增加成长。 3 year continuous profit (EPS Earning per share) growth PROFITGR EPSGR (Profit Growth: 得分Score point=1, EPS Growth=得分Score point=1)

方程式 Formula
(1) ROE > 15 (得分Score point = 2)
股本回报率=每股收益/有形资产净值 Return on Equity ROE = EPS/NTA

净收益/资产净值 Net Income/ Total Shareholder’s Equity

(2) DE < 0.60 (得分Score point = 2)
负债比率=负债总额/资产净值 Debt Ratio DE = Total Liabilities / Shareholders Equity

(3) DY > 3 (得分Score point =2)
股息生息率>定期存款 Dividend Yield > Current Fixed Deposit Rate

(4) Liquidity Ratio > 1 (得分Score point=1)
流动性比率=流动资产/流动负债 Liquidity Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities

(5) 利益率 > 10 Profitability Ratio > 10 (得分Score point=1)

利益率 = 净利润/总收入 Profitability Ratio = Net Profit / Revenue

(6) 现成流动现金Free Cash Flow(得分Score point=2)
= Net Income + Depreciation/Amortization – Change in Working Capital – Capital Expenditures
= Cash Flows from Operating Activities – Capital Expenditures

把上述分数加起来,总分为十二分, 十分者可称之优质股。根椐上述数据分析后,像个照妖镜,劣股顿时现形,无可逃避。

当然,还有其他选股所需明白的详细情况,这是十多个系列里,其中的一个罢了,我将一步步的 step-by-step,用实例图形示范如果从 http://www.klse.com.my 获取上述资料。

那样你便学会终生选股不求人,懂得分办拉圾股的技巧。无论什么股,只要用我们的照妖镜,照一照便可,达到一小时评股的目的。

正符合我提倡的,「根本简易投资法」。

怎样选股? (1) 优质股的定义

By: 小旺子

用资深股票研究人 — 冷眼,冯时能先生为选股做了个开场白, 令人获益不浅。
冯先生选股的结论为:

选股首重效率

故在选择股票时,首重效率,效率反映于投资回酬率(ROE , Profit margin……等)。

低价购买成长行业中管理良好企业的股票,必胜!
高价买进落后行业中管理不善企业的股票,必败!

上回我曾为优质股下了个定义为:

优质股 = 良好财务成长 + 信誉能力强的领导层。

现修改为:

优质股 = 良好财务增长 + 成长行业 + 管理能力强 、 信誉佳的领导层。

「根本简易投资法」的宗旨就是要分解、简化深奥的原理, 若连自己也看不明白的, 就必须进一步简化,直到一看就明白的地步。

李财有方: 打工也有出头天?

By: 李孙耀

有一位年轻人告诉我,他的副经理十年前进入公司时,薪水也和他一样,都是2300令吉。副经理常常勉励他,好好的努力,将来就有升职的机会,副经理还偷偷的告诉他,那位即将退休的经理,公积金已经超过100万令吉。言下之意:打工也有出头天。

年轻人很纳闷,为什么今天的起薪还是和十年前一样,难道这十年来的通货膨胀就没有人去考虑吗?还有,如果要等到退休年龄才有百万,对他而言,那是三十年后的事情了,那时候的百万,会不会太少呢?


领悟复利奥妙

年轻人说,他已经领悟复利的奥妙,也知道开番对致富的重要,他希望我能讲得具体一点,怎样使金钱开番?

开番就是倍数的成长,一千到一百万只是十个番,六万多到一百万也不过四个番,所以理论上,百万是很容易达成的目标,但是,事实上,很多人都做不到,原因在于不知道怎样去发掘开番的机会。

金钱开番有两个途径,那就是,资本开番和收入开番。

资本开番 可选股票房产

有玩股票的朋友都知道,股市是最容易使资本开番的地方,只要选对时机,选对股,要开番是很简单的事情。有经验的投资者都知道,只要在大熊市买进,大牛市卖出,随随便便就可以开几个番。问题是,怎样选股?怎样分辨几时是大熊市,几时是大牛市?

这就投资股票困难之处,事实证明,能够通过股市赚钱的人只占少数,能够连续在股市开番的人,更是少之又少。

我认识一位朋友,他以两万令吉起家,在短短的13年内就在股市里开了9番半,正在意气风发的时候,却遇到亚洲金融风暴,结果,只是短短的一年内就不见了4番半。价值千多万的股票一瞬间只剩下五十万,幸亏他还懂得阿Q精神,就当作是14年内开了4个番,勉强可以自我安慰。

要通过股票来使资本开番,最安全可靠的方法,是学习基本派的功夫,方法就是,选年年赚大钱的公司,然后长期持有。冷眼就是这方面的前辈。

除了股票之外,也可以让资本开番的投资项目就是房地产,事实证明,这是最多人取得成功的方法。

只要在年轻时,尽可能的去买房屋而不要去租,三十年后就可以靠它成为小富。

收入开番 从商最有效

上班族的收入就是薪水,薪水可以开番吗?

也许可以,但是,可以肯定的是,这是漫长的道路,穷一生的努力,也只是区区的几个番而已,而且都是前面的番。

要取得惊人的收入开番,最有效的方法就是从商。唯有做生意才可以无限度的取得收入开番。

举个例子,有一位经营廉价服装的小商人,自从开设一间门市店赚到钱后就积极的扩充,不到十年的光景就开了十间分店,年度营业额也从五十万变成五百万,而所赚的钱也增加了十倍。这就是典型的收入开番,很多商人就是靠它踏上百万之路。

年薪十万要变成二十万,这是艰难的任务。但是,一个年赚十万的商人想要在来年赚二十万却不是困难的事情,只要依样画葫芦,把生意的规模扩大一倍就可以了。

发展空间无限

上班族是付出时间换取金钱,所以能够赚的钱就有局限,做生意却不同,只要你有能力,你的发展空间就是无限的,所以做生意可以赚百万,千万就是这个道理。

当然,并不是每个人都需要年赚百万的,对多数人而言,穷一生的努力,到了退休的年龄,如果公积金户口能够存有一百万,那已经是了不起的成就了。

股票投资8大问

1. 这行业的前景如何?
2. 公司近5年都赚钱吗?
3. 公司管理层可靠及有能力吗?
4. 公司的财务状况稳定吗?
5. 自己有多余的投资资金吗?
6. 是否在低价区买入?
7. 有守候并观察和追踪企业成长?
8. 何时卖出?高价或业绩衰退?