Wednesday, February 16, 2011

US STOCKS-S&P rises, doubles its 2009 low

Source: The Edge | Publish date: Thu, 17 Feb 05:57 | >> Read article in News website


NEW YORK: The S&P 500 rose on Wednesday, Feb 16 to twice its value from just two years ago, a bounce whose vigor has not been seen since the Great Depression.

Stocks were boosted by Dell earnings and deal announcements fueling hope for more gains, but light volume makes the recent move more tenuous.

The market overcame concerns about tensions between Israel and Iran, and indexes slowly climbed back to close near the session's high.

"It seems that there's just a lot of pent-up demand, and the market is very quick to shrug off news that could appear negative," said Angel Mata, managing director of listed equity trading at Stifel Nicolaus in Baltimore.

Still, volume struggled to match the year's average of 7.9 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq. About 7.5 billion shares changed hands on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 closed above 1,333.58, double the intraday low hit in early March 2009. On a closing level, the market has risen more than 96 percent since March 9, 2009 --a run not seen in such a short period of time since 1936, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor's.

The steep advance on relative low volume has sparked many forecasts for a correction.

"You have still a healthy degree of skeptics out there," Mata said. "You never want the market to be too bullish."

Dell Inc, the world's No. 2 personal computer maker after Hewlett-Packard, flew past Wall Street's profit and margins estimates late on Tuesday, and its shares jumped 11.9 percent to $15.56.

HP shares gained 2.1 percent to $48.99.

Two Iranian warships planned to sail through the Suez canal en route to Syria on Wednesday, an Israeli official said, calling it a "provocation" by the Islamic Republic.

The pullback following the comments was another opportunity for money on the sidelines to get back into stocks, Mata said.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 61.53 points, or 0.50 percent, to 12,288.17. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 8.31 points, or 0.63 percent, to 1,336.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 21.21 points, or 0.76 percent, to 2,825.56.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declines on the NYSE by a ratio of 3 to 1. On the Nasdaq, more than nine stocks rose for every five that fell.

Crude and basic materials shares again gave the market direction, with the energy sector of the S&P 500 up 1.3 percent and materials up 1.2 percent.

Oil services provider Halliburton Co closed at its highest level since July 2008 after a 4.3 percent climb to $47.49.

Further boosting energy shares, Brent crude settled up more than 2 percent near $104 a barrel on concerns over the Israel-Iran tension.

French drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis SA agreed to buy Genzyme Corp for $20.1 billion in cash. Genzyme shares rose 1.1 percent to $75.10.

In another proposed deal, activist investor Nelson Peltz's Trian Group offered to acquire Family Dollar Stores Inc for $55 to $60 per share in cash, giving the company an implied value of $7.6 billion. Family Dollar soared 21.1 percent to $53.25..

Trian's bid for Family Dollar helped shares of other discount retailers. Dollar Tree Inc was up 3 percent to $52.45 while Dollar General Corp rose 10.1 percent to $29.64.

In economic news, U.S. core wholesale prices rose in January at the fastest rate in more than two years, raising some concerns about inflation. But economists brushed off inflation concerns and said the recovery was too weak for a big spike in consumer prices.- Reuters

My Basic Trading Tools (Revised)

Author: Lee TG | Publish date: Thu, 17 Feb 06:39 | >> Read article in Blog website


Before I opened up this blog to the world, I have written an article on my basic trading tools. These tools should still apply to new technical analysis learners, and the article can be found here

http://fundamentalwithtechnicalanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/basics-trading-tools.html

As times progress, with more in depth learning of other tools and basics, especially on the aspects of price and volume analysis, VSA and market psychology, I have made a change of the tools that I currently use to forecast more accurately what can lie ahead. This is necessary as we learn to discover better tools and new knowledge that can fit our investment profile and personal characteristics.

The new set of tools that I will use now are:

1. Candlestick patterns: all the time
2. Chart patterns and trend lines : all the time
3. Support and resistance: all the time
4. Bollinger Band: sometimes
5. Moving average (2,5), EMA 20 days, 30d EMA, 50d EMA: nearly all the time
6. Stochastic and MACD: sometimes
7. Fibonacci retracement: sometimes
8. Volume Spread Analysis: all the time (new)
9. Fundamental analysis of the company: all the time
10. Psychological analysis of market participants: all the time (new)

Though the lagging technical indicators like (4) and (6) are important for new learners, I find that the leading indicator like volume analysis will be more useful to me, and the candlestick and chart pattern. A new knowledge (item 10) is very useful to me, and I will apply all the time is the psychological analysis of the market.

For new learners of technical analysis and charting, my advice is not to jump the gun to learn item (8) without going for a training program and later mentoring sessions, as it is a difficult knowledge to absorb, and you may get more confused rather than learning it. Learn the very basics from (1) to (7) first and some fundamental analysis (9), and mastering the basics of these will surely help you to be a better trader. It may take months to learn even the basics of (1) to (7), and never try to learn more than what is necessary, as most people do, because you will lose the focus and you do not have time to learn so many tools.


"It takes a long time to bring excellence to maturity." - Publilius Syrus